Russian President Vladimir Putin has given Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu until next October to stop the counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces, according to a report prepared by military analysts affiliated with the Institute for the Study of War, based in the United States.
The report quoted what it described as sources from within the Kremlin saying that Putin gave the Russian Defense Minister “a deadline, ending at the beginning of next October, to improve the situation on the front, stop Ukrainian counterattacks, and restore the initiative to Russian forces.”
According to the Institute for War Studies report, the same sources suggested that the Russian military leadership would give orders to launch continuous counterattacks to break the Ukrainian counterattack, even if that would cost the Russian Federation heavy losses.
The report indicates that Putin first acknowledged the start of the Ukrainian counterattack on June 9, confirming two main narratives:
Ukrainian forces will not make significant gains due to well-prepared Russian defences.
Ukrainian forces will suffer heavy losses in lives and Western military equipment.
He added that Putin considers Russian defensive operations a major victory on the battlefield, and "continued Russian counterattacks allow the Kremlin to claim that these operations are separate victories against the backdrop of the general lack of Russian success in other areas of the front."
The institute's analysts point out that these efforts are likely aimed at undermining support and undermining confidence in the capabilities of Ukrainian forces both in Ukraine and in the West.
Putin may have ordered his military command to hold all initial defensive positions to create the illusion that Ukrainian counterattacks were achieving no tactical or operational effect, despite significant Western support.
But the report says that this media campaign cannot succeed in the long term unless Russian forces are practically able to prevent any Ukrainian penetration or recovery of large areas.
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