The resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif from his position as Vice President for Strategic Affairs has caused a "shock" within the Iranian political arena, especially the reformist movement.
The resignation has also raised fears of a return to protests and unrest, as Zarif was President Masoud Pezeshkian's most powerful aide during his election campaign, and together they have created hopes for a revival of this movement in contrast to the conservative movement led by the country's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In their comments on this sudden resignation, Iranian affairs experts see it as an indication of the reformists' disappointment in Masoud Pezeshkian's government, and some have wondered whether the resignation reflects the transformation of the Iranian president from a reformist figure into a tool in the hands of the Supreme Leader, and whether it reflects the Leader's control over the new government.
Iranian media outlets, such as Mashregh, considered the removal of officials with dual citizenship, or whose children hold dual citizenship, from the government, including Zarif, whose children hold American citizenship, as an indication of pressure on Pezeshkian from Khamenei’s office.
Zarif’s support for Pezeshkian during the June elections, in which Pezeshkian was the only reformist candidate, was a “turning point and strong support” for the five conservative candidates, as well as a message to the West about changing Iran’s foreign policy if Pezeshkian wins, to be more flexible on some regional and international issues.
The government formation that Pezeshkian presented to parliament for approval on Sunday was not accepted by the reformist movement he represents, as it included one woman, in addition to a number of conservative MPs from the previous government.
Zarif complains of "pressure"
Explaining the reasons for his resignation, Javad Zarif, who served as foreign minister from 2013 to 2021, said in a post on his X account on Sunday: "I am ashamed that I was not able to properly implement the expert opinion of the committees responsible for selecting candidates, and to achieve the inclusion of women, youth and ethnic groups as promised."
He also noted that a number of ministers in the new formation, which included 19 ministers, were not of his choosing.
Another reason Zarif spoke about in a subsequent post published on Monday was the doubts raised about him, because his children hold American citizenship, stressing that he lives with his children and wife in Iran, and that he is subject to American and Canadian sanctions that prevent him from entering the United States even as a tourist, and that these doubts can be traced back to people residing in the United States.
He said directly that the government is under "pressure" using the 2022 law on appointing officials with dual citizenship "as a pretext to pressure the government and disrupt its work."
"Disappointment"
The reformist movement expressed its dissatisfaction with the Pezeshkian government, considering that it did not fully meet their reformist aspirations for change, and some even considered the new government an extension of the government under conservative President Ebrahim Raisi.
Iranian political analyst Leila Jamankhah says that the new government and Zarif's resignation have caused frustration among Iranians and disappointed young people who supported the reformist candidate in the hope of improving economic conditions and enhancing freedoms.
The Iranian analyst warns that this frustration will fuel negative sentiments on the street and cause a new escalation in protests and unrest.
Khawah cites the "absence of change" as evidenced by the fact that the list of proposed ministers, especially key political and security figures, included Ismail Khatib, the current Minister of Information, who will remain in his position "and is a radical cleric who played a prominent role in suppressing the Women and Life and Freedom demonstrations," and Eskandar Momeni, the candidate for the Ministry of the Interior, "who played a prominent role in suppressing the 2009 uprising, described the protesters as mercenaries and ignorant, and strongly supports imposing the hijab."
Bezshigan and Khamenei's Cloak
Iranian historian and political analyst Arash Azizi approaches the situation from an angle that focuses on internal differences; he believes that Zarif's resignation "is not just a passing political event, but rather indicates deep differences that reveal the lack of cohesion in the senior administration."
Azizi expects these differences to be reflected in the performance of the new government, referring in particular to what he sees as a potential role for Ali Khamenei's office in fueling the crisis within the government.
Regarding Khamenei's motives for this potential intervention, he says that the intervention, whether covert or overt, "aims to strengthen his control over the government, or to subjugate it completely, and if he succeeds in this, Bezshigan may face difficulty in maintaining the government's credibility before the people and the international community."
This analysis is agreed upon by the expert on Iranian affairs, Wajdan Abdul Rahman, who believes that Javad Zarif's resignation "reveals a high degree of control exercised by the office of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards over the government," also expecting this to affect the independence of the next government.
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